This motion punctures the comforting story that leaders succeed because they deserve to. It asks whether what we call “good leadership” is mostly the product of circumstance: being in the right place at the right time, inheriting favourable conditions, facing an easy opponent, or being blessed with a crisis that makes decisive action look heroic.

Proponents will point to survivorship bias, unpredictable external shocks, and the way reputation often follows outcomes rather than choices—suggesting we confuse fortune with skill.

Opponents will argue that while luck shapes the terrain, leadership still shows up in judgement, preparation, character under pressure, and the ability to build systems that perform across good and bad conditions. This debate is compelling because it challenges personal beliefs about merit, fairness, and how societies should choose—and reward—the people in charge.